1οΈβ£Investment idea of the week
The market sees TOYA S.A. ($TOA) as a cyclical, low-end Polish tools distributor. Quietly, it is expanding its professional and international footprint. π οΈπ
Would you be comfortable owning this business for the next 10 years? β³π
Do you hold this company in your portfolio already?
Please, let us know in the comments.π
2οΈβ£Charts of the Week
This weekβs market narrative has been shaped again by the called βTaco tradeβ headlines, derived from Greenland negotiations to revived tariff rhetoric.ππ
It reinforces how quickly geopolitical noise can resurface even in risk-on markets, and how rapidly underlying conditions can shift. β οΈ
How is the market positioned amid all of this? π€π
This chart shows global fund managersβ cash levels at a record low of ~3.3%, indicating portfolios are nearly fully invested.
Historically, such extremes have coincided with crowded positioning, limited incremental buying power, and weaker short-term equity returns, as liquidity buffers all but disappear.
On the other hand, and impresively, this picture shows us that, despite elevated valuations and macro uncertainty, most managers have not put on downside protection.π‘οΈβ
Hedging activity sits near cycle lows, signalling complacency and leaving portfolios exposed to abrupt drawdowns.
Together, these charts depict a market that is fully deployed and largely unprotected , highly dependent on continued benign conditions, and increasingly vulnerable to negative surprises.π―π₯
3οΈβ£Articles of the Week
As usual, there are a couple of articles that we found particularly interesting and constructive.
Kairos Research | @kairosresearch
Reframes ContextLogic as a capital allocation platform underpinned by substantial NOLs, rather than a failed e-commerce asset.
The investment case hinges on disciplined redeployment of excess cash into cash-generative assets, with tax shields enhancing long-term FCF per share.
HatedMoats | @hatedmoats
Positions Mo-Bruk as a regulated waste treatment business with structural entry barriers and durable cash flow visibility.
Argues the market is over-penalising one-off accounting adjustments, overlooking resilient margins and long-term FCF compounding potential.
I hope you find the content useful.π
May the investment be with you.
Magno Investments Research
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