1οΈβ£Investment idea of the week
2οΈβ£Charts of the Week
This week, the everyone remains focused on geopolitical tension around Iran. As you know the more it takes the more painfull will it be in terms of oil, inflation, and rates.
The first chart shows a pattern repeated many times since 1939. After major geopolitical events, the S&P 500 usually drops first, not because fundamentals suddenly change, but because uncertainty gets priced immediately. In the current Iran situation, the reaction has been very similar: initial sell-off, short-term pressure, and then stabilization.πβ οΈ
The average and median lines suggest that once the first fear passes, markets tend to recover unless the shock becomes economic rather than political.
What changes everything is if it creates second-order effects like higher energy prices, sticky inflation, or pressure on central banks. That is where temporary volatility becomes a real macro issue. β½
The second chart puts this into perspective. Through Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and now Iran, the long-term S&P 500 trend has remained intact, basically each conflict created fear in real time, but over years, earnings and capital allocation mattered more than headlines.
What looked dramatic in the moment often became just another dip on the chart.ππ
3οΈβ£Articles of the Week
This week we bring you, as always, a couple interesting creators.
mavix | @underfollowedstocks
Circle Group SpA
β’ Structural growth: Benefits from EU port digitalization, customs reform, and long-term logistics software demand.
β’ Recurring revenue shift: Moving from project-based sales to more SaaS revenue, improving margins and visibility.
Diego F. γ (aka Moclano) | @moclano
Garmin (GRMN)
β’ Diversified business: Much more than wearables, with strong exposure to aviation, marine, outdoor, and fitness.
β’ Quality compounder: Strong margins, resilient cash flow, and long-term value creation through durable competitive advantages.
I hope you find the content useful.π
May the investment be with you.
Magno Investments Research
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